2008/2009 Plays

Grand Finale

Well, in all likelyhood this is the last game of the year.  This season can’t end fast enough.  Might as well end it with a pick only 29% of the nation is making.

Cornell +12.5 4x

Senior Saturday

Dartmouth at Brown  Play: Brown -4 4x
Harvard at Yale  Play: Yale -5 2x
Penn at Columbia  Play: Penn +3 3x
Princeton at Cornell  Play: Princeton +15 3x

Saturday Feb 28

After an 0-8 Friday stretch, took yesterday off. Back on the horse tonight.

Brown at Penn -7.5 Play: Brown +7.5 2x
Yale at Princeton -1.5 Play: Princeton -1.5 3x
Columbia at Dartmouth -1 play: Dartmouth -1 2x
Cornell at Harvard +6.5 Play: Cornell -6.5 4x

Let’s have a big night!

Sat Feb 21st

Just reverse these, it’s for your own good:

Dartmouth at Princeton -8  Play: Dartmough +8 2x
Harvard at Penn -5.5 Play: Penn -5.5 3x
Columbia at Yale -6  Play:  Columbia +6 4x
Cornell at Brown +8  Play: Cornell -8 3x

3 Weeks Left

It’s been a beyond frustrating year.   Princeton beats the first place team (Cornell) by 20 points, then the second place team (Columbia) by 30, and the VERY NEXT WEEK loses to Yale by 12 and the last place team (Brown) by 18.  None of those three teams can even claim the injury bug, like Penn can with 4 of their projected starters out.  The only comfort I can take is that I think every coach in the league feels the same way.

At this point, I’m not going to waste keystrokes justifying these.

Friday
Columbia at Brown  -4  Play: Brown -4 2x
Cornell at Yale  +5.5     Play: Cornell -5.5 4x
Dartmouth at Penn  -10  Play: Penn -10 1x
Harvard at Princeton  -5  Play: Princeton -5 3x

Valentines Day

Things haven’t been all sweethearts and honeypies around here this season, but there’s nothing to do but keep on truckin.  Posting these early so that hopefully everyone can spend some quality time with their little ladies.

Saturday
Harvard at Columbia pk = -3
Columbia made me eat all 8.5 of my words last night.  Their perimeter defense should pressure Harvard’s guards much worse than Dartmouth’s.  Play: Columbia -3 2x

Dartmouth at Cornell -8 = -20
Twenty?  Things are getting a little out of hand upstate.  Play: Dartmouth +20 3x

Penn at Yale -2 = -3.5
I thought the Penn Brown game would be a little closer than it was.  I don’t have the stats handy, but if you look back over the past 7 years, I think Miller would be something like 5-2 in New Haven.  In THIS case, historical records do matter- Miller > Jones.  Play Penn -3.5 2x

Princeton at Brown +6 = +1.5
Well, here it is, the Game of the Week.  This one is going to be one people look back on and laugh at when Brown gets blown out by 20 again.  I’d feel a little better if I was getting 6 instead of 1.5, but no going back now… Looking at SportsInsights.com I’m going to be 1 of about 200 people on this side.  Play: Brown +1.5 5x

Friday Picks

So, apparently my takes on the games are significantly off from where our friends in Vegas see them.  That isn’t necessarily a bad thing.  Lets go one by one:

Harvard at Cornell -9 = -15
The Big Red has now won three of its last four Ivy League home contests by more than 25 points, including drilling Harvard 86-53 at the end of last year.  People remember crap like that, and bet accordingly.  Unfortunately, it has absolutely nothing to do with this game.  Play: Harvard +15 2x

Penn at Brown +2 = -1
Not sure what advantage Brown shows here in this game, other than being at home.  This is a game between two struggling teams, both of which are better than their record show, but capable of laying a huge goose egg on any given night.  No Play

Princeton at Yale +4 = -2
Yale might be a tough place to play, but with the Ely’s averaging less than 50pts per game, and the Tigers having one of the toughest defenses in the league, Princeton might be able to take this one on free throws alone.  Play: Princeton +2 3x

Dartmouth at Columbia +3 = -8.5
I saved this one for last, because it’s absurd.  Columbia laying 8.5 to anybody in the league is a joke, especially considering Ampin supposedly had a pretty bad ankle sprain last weekend and is questionable for this weekend. Play: Dartmouth +8.5 4x

Good luck!

Sat Feb 7th

Short, and hopefully sweet:

Yale at Dartmouth +3.5  Play: Dartmouth +3.5 2x
Cornell at Penn +6.5 Play: Cornell -6.5 3x
Brown at Harvard -6  Play: Brown +6 1x
Columbia at Princeton -5.5  Play: Columbia +5.5 3x

Week 2

Somehow, before the “real” conference season even began we’ve dug ourselves into a 10 unit hole.  That’s just unacceptable, and its time to buckle down and right this ship.  It’s never easy… This weekend’s schedule:

Friday
Yale at Harvard -4
Brown at Dartmouth +1
Cornell at Princeton +7
Columbia at Penn -5.5

Saturday (with line guesses)
Yale at Dartmouth +3
Brown at Harvard -2
Cornell at Penn +7
Columbia at Princeton -4

Game of the week: The sucker’s pick is Cornell at Princeton, the two unbeaten teams.  More like the Blowout of the Week.  Princeton has two quality wins, but its more a factor of the extreme mediocrity of the 7 teams below the Big Red than anything special in the New Jersey tap water.  The game I’m most interested in is Cornell at Penn.   Despite all of the Penn injuries, illnesses, and deserters, the Palestra is still the toughest place to play, and Miller is still one of the best in the league at X’s and O’s.  Expect a close one here early, with the Red pulling away in the second half.

Yale at Harvard: I’ve been staring at this game all week, and can’t make any headway whatsoever.  Harvard is a sham, Lin is a great little guard, but he loves to drive and dish…to guys who dont want to shoot.  Jones and Yale finally outcoached Brown for two solid wins to start the season (Agel is no Robinson or Miller I guess), but then got drubbed against a weak Columbia team and absolutely destroyed at Cornell.   Gun to my head, I Yale on the ML for the better line.  Rationale?  Someone is going to stink up the joint by more than 4.  Pass

Brown at Dartmouth:  Miserable start for Brown, and not at all how Agel pictured the start of his Ivy head coaching career.  0-4 is hang up the sneakers time with respect to the postseason.  Looking deeper though, both Yale games were completely winnable, and they just didn’t execute against Columbia.  If Al Pacino did a film about basketball, he’d be right in saying “it’s a game of posessions”.  One going this way or that way could have resulted in Brown going into Dartmouth with a 3-1 record, favored by 5+.  Play: Brown -1 2x

Cornell at Princeton: Cornell went 14-0 last year, returns everyone, and is the most dominating force of the past decade.  Luckily for us, Princeton pulled 2 wins out against a hot Dartmouth team, and an extremely overrated Harvard team.  If not for those wins, this line would be twice as high.  Play: Cornell -7 4x
Columbia at Penn: If I was able to go to one of the 4 games, this would be it.  These are two teams that are playing without full strength rosters.  Penn is missing a ton of talent, or they never have lost at Dartmouth, and this one would be a gimme.  Instead, I’ll take the points with the defensively focused Lions.  Play: Columbia +5.5 1x

First Friday Extravaganza

Here were the predictions, followed by the actual line in bold

Friday
Yale at Columbia +4 = -2
Brown at Cornell -10 = -14
Princeton at Dartmouth -2 = +1.5
Penn at Harvard pk= -6

Two lines clearly stand out - the first being Columbia favored over Yale, despite Yale’s two back to back wins over Brown last week.  I guess they say home court is worth a few points, but not that many.  The Jones brothers fiasco will go to Yale tonight.  Play: Yale +2 1x

The second, and more obsurd is the Harvard vote of confidence, favoring them by 6 over Penn.  Harvard beat BC, and now they’re the best thing since sliced bread.  I guess the national spotlight 15 minutes of fame faded before they lost to Dartmouth (almost twice).   Play: Penn +6 1x

Lastly, despite the two losses to Yale, I continue to think that the Bears are a solid team, and will fight tooth and nail to at least be an upset threat.  Play: Brown +14 2x

The Princeton Dartmouth shitshow is the pass of the week.