Season Preview - Harvard Crimson

Projected Finish: 4th Place

Last Season Conference Record: 3-11 (t-6th)
Last Season Overall: 8-22 (.267)
RPI Last 5 years: 308-196-214-188-307

Review & Outlook:

When a new coach takes over a losing squad there are often wholesale changes made. In his second year, Tommy Amaker made blowout firesale type changes. You don’t need a Harvard education to figure out that bringing in 7 freshman recruits minus 1 senior graduate doesn’t equal team harmony. In fact, the roster changes were so severe that they warranted a New York Times article detailing the player cuts. Controversy has been swirling with rumors that questionable recruiting tactics have been used, and that Harvard lowered its required Academic Index resulting in more lenient player acceptances to the school. On top of that, Harvard announced last year that they’re upping their financial aid capabilities.   Families making up to $180,000 a year will be charged only 10% or less of their income for tuition and other expenses.  This adds an interesting loophole creating what amounts to near full scholarships for many recruits.  Add all of this up, shake it around, and it’s no wonder Amaker’s freshmen are hyped as some of the best in the league.  Now he’ll have to find a way to fit the pieces of the puzzle together.

All in all, this is a team that can either challenge for the upper tier of the league, or will merely be another disappointment with upset potential.  If Pat Magnarelli can stay healthy as a presence in the post, and some of these freshman can produce, Harvard at the very least has the potential to ruin Cornell’s shot for a 2nd straight title.

BACKCOURT: B-
BENCH/DEPTH: A
FRONTCOURT: B
INTANGIBLES: D

Starters Returning:
Jeremy Lin, Jr., G, 6-2, 180 12.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 3.6 apg
Pat Magnarelli, Jr., F, 6-7, 215 10.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.1 apg
Evan Harris, Sr., F, 6-9, 200 10.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.5 apg
Drew Housman, Sr., G, 6-0, 185 10.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.2 apg
Andrew Pusar, Sr., G, 6-2, 200 8.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.5 apg
Starters Lost:
None
Others Lost:
Brad Unger, Sr - Graduated
Cem Dinc, Jr, potentially academically ineligible, left the team
Ndu Okereke, So , cut by Amaker
Darryl Finkton, So - Knee injuries limited his playtime, cut by Amaker
Alek Blankenau, So , left the team on his own accord
Kyle Fitzgerald, Fr , cut by Amaker
Adam Demuyakor, Fr , cut by Amaker
T.J. Carey, Fr , cut by Amaker

Projected Starting Lineup:
PG: Drew Housman
SG: Jeremy Lin
SF: Andrew Pusar
PF: Pat Magnarelli
C: Evan Harris

Key Reserves:
Max Kenyi, G, 6-5 Fr.

Digging a little deeper

Strengths:
• Depth. Harvard returns 5 starters (albeit from a 3-11 team) and brings in SEVEN highly anticipated freshman recruits. Even if just 2 or 3 of these guys can log serious minutes Harvard will have the personnel to keep the defensive pressure on.

Weaknesses:
• Team turmoil has got to be pervasive on this squad. Cutting 5 players and having 2 others leave the team in a single off season will destroy chemistry and morale. Add questionable recruiting tactics by Amaker’s staff, and the microscope will be focused on these youngsters all year.
• This team didn’t win a road game all last year. They’ll have to be mentally tougher to stay in contention.

Key Factors:
• Magnarelli missed most of his freshman year to a back injury, and most of his sophomore year to a knee injury. Can he stay healthy enough to be a major force in the paint?

Incoming Class:
• Max Kenyi, G, 6-5 180lb - athletic shut-down defender, could contend for a starting spot immediately
• Oliver McNally, G, 6-3 180 lb — Point guard with decent shot
• Peter Boehm, F, 6-7 200lb - can play all five positions
• Hugh Martin, F, 6-5 215lb — polished midrange game
• Andrew Van Nest, F, 6-9 220lb - can step outside and shoot from the perimeter
• Keith Wright, F, 6-7 240lb - can post up or flash high for the elbow jumper
• Peter Swiatek, C, 6-7 240lb - traditional center, prefers to be in the post

Harvard Roster

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Season Preview - Brown Bears

Projected Finish: 3rd Place

Last Season Conference Record: 11-3 (2nd)
Last Season Overall: 19-10 (.655)
RPI Last 5 years: 209-229-273-230-106

Review & Outlook:

Lets make no bones about it, the Bears lost the best 1-2 punch in the league to graduation in first team All-Ivy guards Mark McAndrew and Damon Huffman. Together, they accounted for 47% of all the team’s points scored last year. As if that’s not enough of a blow, Brown will be under the helm of a new head coach Jesse Agel, previously the first assistant.

Although all is not lost, infact, far from it. Agel will begin his tenure with the benefit of three returning starters, including second team All-Ivy guard/forward Chris Skrelja, and a bunch of underclassmen that played decent minutes.

While Agel plans to keep much of the “modified Princeton offense” that the Bears ran so effectively last year, they got a little extra practice time this summer during a 10-day team trip to Europe. They played 4 games while they were there, and with Skrelja and Friske on the sideline with minor injuries, the 10 other returning players got a chance to gel as a team. Sullivan, Gruber, and Williams all impressed the Euro fans with their American game.

The Bears have a dangerous mix of size and speed at all 5 positions, with Sullivan and Skrelja able to bring the ball up the court and defend the point at 6′5 and 6′6 respectively. If either of the 6′9 Freshman centers can step up and provide quality defensive minutes in the paint, this team will be one to reckon with, and could easily spoil Cornell and Penn’s bids for the championship.

BACKCOURT: B
BENCH/DEPTH: B
FRONTCOURT: B
INTANGIBLES: A-

Starters Returning:
Peter Sullivan, So., F, 6-5, 210 8.8 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 0.8 apg
Chris Skrelja, Sr, G, 6-6, 220 8.4 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 4.1 apg
Scott Friske, Sr., F, 6-7, 235 4.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg
Starters Lost:
Mark McAndrew, G, 6-2, 190 16.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.2 apg
Damon Huffman, G, 6-2, 185 15.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 1.7 apg
Others Lost:
Jelani Floyd, injured most of last year, left team.

Projected Starting Lineup:

PG. Adrian Williams
SG: Peter Sullivan
SF: Chris Skrelja
PF: Scott Friske
C: Matt Mullery

Key Reserves:
Steve Gruber Jr G,

Digging a little deeper

Strengths:
• One of the most frustrating players in the league on both offense and defense in 6′6 utility man Chris Skrelja. Last year he averaged 8.4 points, 6.7 rebounds (3rd in the league), and 4.2 assists per game (2nd in the league). He can shoot and defend at 19′9″ as effectively as in the paint.
• Don’t underestimate the teambuilding value of a 10 day European basketball trip, or the jumpstart it will give Agel’s Bears as they adapt to a new offensive system.
• 6′8 Matt Mullery isn’t the biggest center in the league, but he is an intimidating figure in the paint and lead the league in blocks last year.

Weaknesses:
• Replacing 32 points per game from their graduated guards will be a tall task, considering many of those points came in the form of clutch end of game shots.

Key Factors:
• How well and how quickly with Brown be able to put together the pieces of a new Coach, new system, and new backcourt?
• What will the best lineup be? Brown has a lot of interchangeable parts, and could start an entire lineup of 6′5 and above. The trouble will be finding out who is going to step up and earn the minutes.

Incoming Class:
• Jean Harris 6′2 PG - averaged 27 points per game as a senior at LA High School, and will see time early as a reserve
• Marques Coleman - 6′3 PG - was injured his senior year, but is a slashing scorer
• Stefan Kaluz 6′9 C - lanky west coast center, two-time Pacific Coast League MVP at Carona Del Mar High School, scoring 1,600 career points
• Noel Hollingsworth 6′9 C - big man, may need time to develop, but the Bears could use his size inside

Brown Roster

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Season Preview - Penn Quakers

Projected Finish: 2nd Place

Last Season Conference Record: 8-6 (3rd)
Last Season Overall: 13-18 (.419)
RPI Last 5 years 121-57-98-88-261

Review & Outlook:

After winning three straight Ivy League titles, the Quakers slipped to third place last season, and finished under .500 overall. Head Coach Glen Miller has the coaching know-how to turn X’s and O’s into W’s, but the question remains if his 5 freshman recruits have the ability to execute them. 2007’s Ivy Rookie of the Year utility man Tyler Bernardini will lead the way, along with fellow sophomores Eggleston and Gaines. All three benefited from tons of minutes in their freshman seasons, averaging 12, 8, and 7pts per game respectively. Bernardini and Eggleston, along with freshman Rosen, Loughery, and Belcore, stayed up in Philly working their games all summer, and should be ready for increased roles this season.

Watch for Senior forward Tommy McMahon and Junior guard Darren Smith to make positive contributions after returning from serious injuries last year (hip surgery and broken kneecap). However, early indications are that the injury bug is plaguing Penn again this year, with Aron Cohen, Andreas Schreiber and Justin Reilly all also sitting out practices.

One area that Penn will have to improve upon is their defense. Starting 3 freshman for a majority of the season resulted in opponents shooting a league best/worst %%% against them. Maybe the new parquet floor in the Palestra will give them some extra spring in their step.

The Quakers have the only legitimate shot at challenging Cornell for a ticket to the big dance. It’s going to be tough, and they will need to stay healthy, mesh as a unit, and get a little help along the way from one or two of Cornell’s opponents.

BACKCOURT: B
BENCH/DEPTH: A-
FRONTCOURT: C
INTANGIBLES: B+

Starters Returning:
Tyler Bernardini, So., F, 6-6, 205 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.5 apg
Jack Eggleston, So., F, 6-8, 215 8.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.2 apg
Harrison Gaines, So., G, 6-0, 170 6.7 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 3.6 apg
Andreas Schreiber, Jr., C, 6-9, 245 5.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.9 bpg
Starters Lost:
Brian Grandieri, F, 6-4, 210 13.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 2.2 apg
Others Lost:
Michael Kach, Sr
Joe Gill, Sr

Projected Starting Lineup:

PG: Zack Rosen 6′1 Fr.
SG: Harrison Gaines, So
SF: Tyler Bernardini, So
PF: Jack Eggleston. So
C: Andreas Schreiber, Jr (Injured/Out for first few weeks)

Key Reserves:
Kevin Egee, Sr

Digging a little deeper

Strengths:
• Small, athletic, good shooting all-around team.
• Promising freshman class, some of which should make an immediate impact.
• Miller will use a deep and talented bench rotating in 10+ players to keep defensive intensity at the highest levels in the league

Weaknesses:
• Not much size or presence in the backcourt
• In true Glen Miller recruiting fashion, the Quakers graduated 3, and brought in 5. A 19 man roster is too deep, and it’s is sure to create a little tension. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few guys leave the team midseason.

Key Factors:
• In their ideal scenario, the Quakers are starting 3 sophomores. In reality, they will likely give the nod to 1 or 2 freshman before conference play begins. The success of this season lays in the lap of kids with little to no D1 experience.
• The injury bug is hitting the Quakers already, before they have even played a single game. In a league where every game is a playoff game, can they stay healthy for 14 straight games?
• Andreas Schreiber in the middle needs to be more consistent than last year

Incoming Class:
• Zack Rosen - 6′1 point guard, best bet to contribute right away
• Mike Howlett - 6-9 center, will get immediate time in the paint defending conference bigmen
• Larry Loughery - 6-6 forward
• Rob Belcore - 6-6 forward
• Garvin Hunt - 6′10 center, will need time to develop

Penn Roster

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Season Preview - Cornell Big Red

Projected Finish: 1^st Place

Last Season Conference Record: 14-0 (1st)
Last Season Overall: 22-6 (.786)
RPI Last 5 years: 267-210-207-169-65

Review & Outlook:

Cornell ran the conference table last season, the first squad to do so since Penn in 2002-03, and are in search of their first back-to-back conference titles in school history. They’ve stack the deck in their favor by returning four starters, three of which received All-Ivy recognition. Point guard Louis Dale, the reigning Player of the Year, and forward Ryan Wittman, one of the best shooters in the country should vie for POY honors. Jeff Foote 7’0 and Alex Tyler 6’7 will be commanding presences in the paint. Adam Gore was another all-conference candidate, but went down to his second ACL injury in September. It remains uncertain if he will be back for the second half of the year, or petition for a 5^th year.

I’ll give Cornell a 90% chance at taking the Ivy title this year, if they can stay healthy, and they might even grab a 14 seed in the tourney if they can knock off one or two of their non-conference foes. The icing on the cake? Not only will Cornell bring back the same starting five next year, but they also add UMass transfer Max Groebe, who from day 1 is an Ivy Player of the Year type of talent. Throw in an experienced bench and this is a Cornell team that will be a factor for the next couple of years and possibly long-term.

BACKCOURT: A+
BENCH/DEPTH: A
FRONTCOURT: B+
INTANGIBLES: A

Starters Returning:

Ryan Wittman Jr., F, 6-6, 210 15.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.5 apg
Louis Dale Jr., G, 5-11, 180 13.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.9 apg
Adam Gore Sr., G, 6-0, 180 10.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.4 apg
Alex Tyler Jr., F/C, 6-7, 235 8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.9 apg

Starters Lost:

Jason Hartford, F/C, 6-9, 245 7.3 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 0.6 apg

Others Lost:

Collin Robinson - USC transfer left the team last year after 13 games for “personal reasons”, transferred back to USC to become a broadcast major

Projected Starting Lineup:

PG: Louis Dale 5-11 Jr.
SG: Chris Wroblewski 6-0 Fr.
SF: Ryan Wittman 6-6 Jr.
PF: Alex Tyler 6-7 Jr.
C: Jeff Foote 7-0 Sr.

Key Reserves: Marc Van Burck 6-11 Jr. C, Jason Battle 6-4 Sr. SG, Andre Wilkins 6-5 Jr. SF, Geoff Reeves 6-5 Jr. SG, Brian Kreefer 6-7 Sr. SF

Digging a little deeper

Strengths:

• Top four scorers returning, including the reigning POYs Louis Dale.
• Cornell named 4 co-captains for this year’s squad. (Battle, Gore, Kreefer, and Mullen). That says everything you need to know about this teams cohesion
• Playing well at Duke (an 81-67 loss in early January) was a huge confidence builder last year. Another very tough non-conference schedule this year (including Indiana, Syracuse, Minnesota, St Johns, and St Joes) will provide them an opportunity to get their game right before facing much softer Ivy League opponents.
• They were an NCAA top 10 team shooting both 3-pointers and free throws last year. Moving the 3pt line back a foot will not phase sharpshooters Whittman and Gore, while also creating more space to operate for the slashing Dale and low post presence Foote.

Weaknesses:

• Adam Gore will miss the entire non-conference schedule, and may be out for the year, as he recovers from a torn ACL suffered in September.
• Louis Dale has sat out preseason practices thus far with a hamstring injury. If he can’t go 100%, or re-injures himself during the year things could go downhill quickly.

Key Factors:

• Jeff Foote, the 7’ senior postman will get more minutes and touches with the graduation of Jason Hartford. He needs to step up and be a force inside on the offensive and defensive ends. Taking an extra 100 free throws a day wouldn’t hurt either.

Incoming Class:

• Chris Wroblewski - 6’1 guard from Illinois with a good all around game.
• Alex Hill - 6’5 forward with a soft shooting touch. Soft is the key word.
• Marc Van Burck – 6’11 transfer who sat the bench at Colorado, then played a season at a Utah community college. With his size, he may be called upon to eat up minutes on defense if Foote grabs a couple of fouls early.
• Max Groebe – 6’0 guard transferred in from UMass, and will be eligible next season. He got some decent minutes as a Freshman, and should fill the gap next year after Gore graduates.

Cornell Roster

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Preseason Poll

The preseason media poll is out, and no surprise, Cornell is picked as a runaway favorite to repeat.

2008-09 Ivy League Men’s Basketball Preseason Media Poll

1. Cornell - 128 points (16 first-place votes)
2. Penn - 110
3. Yale - 80
4. Harvard - 77
5. Brown - 75
6. Columbia - 45
7. Dartmouth - 33
8. Princeton - 28

In the coming weeks, I will be posting team by team thoughts and predictions of my own.  First non-conference games start on Friday November 14th!