Archive for December, 2008

Day and Night

LaSalle +4 at Cornell (Loss)
I felt pretty good going into the second half up by 11, AND getting 4 more points.  Are there any statistics that show the probability of a team winning the first half by 11, then losing the second by 20?  I guess it’s not unprecedented, especially in the Ivy’s.  Last year to open conference play Harvard beat Dartmouth by 26 on the road, then lost to them SIX DAYS later at home by 13.

To add insult to injury, of course Columbia covered on the unplayed lean.

Holiday Games

Virginia Tech vs Columbia +16 (at MSG tourny)
Leaning Columbia here, but not enough for a play, even at this outsized number.

LaSalle at Cornell -4
LaSalle is a strong, tall, athletic team.  Their shortest starter is 6′5.  Cornell is done with finals, and their student body is on break, so Newman Arena will likely be more Noman Arena for this 2pm tip.  Louis Dale is back, and should play a meaningful role in today’s game, but after sitting out the first nine games I’m thinking that it’ll at least take him a few more to get back into rythem.  Play: LaSalle +4 1x

Nice break, before the semester break

Princeton at Manhatten, Play: Princeton +10.5 (Win)
It was a slow paced game, in the 60’s as expected.  Davis played very well, and Finley was saddled with foul trouble early on.  Chris Smith went absolutely berzerker shooting 12-17 from the field for a career high 35pts.  The rest of the team basically dunked everything, for a team shooting percentage of 50%.  Despite covering this one by half a point, it wasn’t a backdoor cover, so I feel pretty good.

Only a few more games on the docket before winter break, and the start of conference play.  Maybe I should bear down and post the rest of the preseason outlooks…

Dec 14th

Princeton at Manhatten -10.5, 4pm
Manhatten is not a stellar team, and they get the majority of their offense from their guard play.  A little matchup zone defense from Princeton combined with slow tempo offensive sets should keep this game in the 60’s.  Here’s hoping Davis and Finley show up - Play: Princeton +10.5 2x

7-10 split

Right down the middle.

Rutgers at Princeton:  Play: Princeton -4 1x Loss
Now I don’t know if gametracker is fucking with me here, but this is a classic 2 unit swing in a 1 second space-time vacuum.  Don’t blink, or you’ll miss our money being flushed down the toilet.  I present to you, Exhibit #1:

You can almost see the 3pter clanking off the rim right to a laxidasical JR Inman (who was hobbled by a bum ankle) being raked by a pissed off Tiger, upset that they just blew their 4th home game of the young season.  Hey ref, 4 point game with 1 second left, eat the whistle will ya?

Northeastern at Harvard:  Play: Northeastern -2.5 1x Win
Now, for a sense of deja vu, this happened not more than 5 minutes later:

You really have to try hard to blow a game when you’re up 6 with 33 seconds left.  Luckily, they managed to cover in double overtime.

Get ready gentlemen.  If things keep up like this, it’s going to be a long season…

Midweek Bball

Rutgers at Princeton +4
Play: Princeton +4 1x

Northeastern at Harvard +2.5
Play: Northeastern -2.5 1x

Steady as she goes

A first time visitor could arguably write these early picks off as a joke, great fade material. And rightly so given the record. But this is expected, and the reason everything has been 2 units or less in non conference play. We will be ok.

Based on the final score of the Cornell game, they got blown out. It was actually a great and competitive until the final minutes. As December and breaks for finals come, things slow down. We’ll be back strong, maybe pick off a couple more games before then.